Mr Scarlet ran a massive race for us at Naas on Sunday, flying home down the outside for 3rd and earning some black type. Unfortunately for us there were a couple of non-runners so unless you backed him in the place market on Betfair it wasn’t good enough to reward each way support. He is a horse that seemingly takes a lot of getting fit and he is well worth sticking with next time out. The winner was mightily impressive, and an exciting season lies ahead for Caravaggio.
|Shelley Birkett has a good record when riding for her Mum.
On Wednesday the standard of racing isn’t of the highest quality, but I can’t resist having a small e/w bet on Little Orchid in the 15.00 at Yarmouth at very nice odds. Julia Feilden loves to have winners at her local track and this will be a family affair with Shelly Birkett taking off 3lb in the saddle. This 4yo daughter of Observatory has yet to get her head in front in 11 career starts, but she looks bred to relish the step up in trip to 14f at Yarmouth tomorrow.
She has placed three times in her career, and her best effort came on good ground in a 12f handicap at Brighton last October when beaten just a neck off a mark of 50. She was given loads to do after getting outpaced early, but she flew home for 2nd and if the race was 50 yards further she would have got up.
She hasn’t reproduced that level of form in four runs since, but her last effort can be excused as it came after a 133 day break. She actually ran well enough in that 11f contest here earlier this month, shaping as though she might get involved up the inner before fading late on. I think she faded due to fitness rather than not staying, and tomorrow’s trip of 14f could be perfect.
There is loads of stamina in her pedigree and her dam, who was also trained by Julia Feilden, was a winner at 14f. Her half brother Spectested was a 3 mile+ hurdle winner while another half sister was a 2 mile hurdle winner. Her sire Observatory has a decent record at staying trips too, with a 21% overall strike rate with his progeny that have raced at 14f+ (9/43).
Julia Feilden’s record at Yarmouth is another reason for optimism as she loves having winners around here. In the past 5 seasons she has had 12 winners from 112 runners, with a hugely impressive 54 top 4 finishes. That is a near 60% frame hitting strike rate and it is a superb record for a yard that wouldn’t have a huge amount of ammunition to go to war with. Shelley Birkett also does well when riding for her Mum, with 38 wins and 138 top 4 finishes from 403 rides in last 5 seasons.
As can be seen from the above the statistics are in Little Orchid’s favour tomorrow, and she has been drawn in stall 2. She will probably be held up and played late by Birkett, and she will need the gaps to come at the right time. This looks a desperately weak contest, and Little Orchid faces a host of rivals that are badly out of form. With Birkett’s claim she is effectively off a mark of 45, and if she returns to the form of that Brighton run off 50 surely she won’t be far away at odds of 25/1.
STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 15.00 YARMOUTH-LITTLE ORCHID E/W @ 25/1