Sizing Sahara ran a massive race for us earlier, but he agonisingly just missed out on a place in 4th. He made a bold bid under young Treacy, and he seemed to have the field in trouble as they headed for home. However, he just ran out of petrol in the last furlong or so, and he ended up in 4th. He is capable of winning again, and perhaps a drop in trip to 2 miles might be the answer.
|Kilmessan trainer Matthew Smith has a good strike rate at Dundalk.
Tomorrow’s fancy comes from Dundalk, and I think Consider could be set to produce a big run for Matthew Smith and Gearoid Brouder. Smith is based in a small village in Meath called Kilmessan, and it is a town with a rich racing pedigree. Adrian and Jason Maguire, two top class pilots, are both from the area, and Smith is continuing a proud tradition in the village.
He has an extremely well bred horse in Consider, a 5yo son of Cape Cross who is a full brother to Group 2 winner Treat Gently. His dam is related to a couple of black type performers too, but Consider has yet to live up to his pedigree. He was sold by Juddmonte for just 5K back in 2015, and he has had just the 2 runs for Smith.
He has been well beaten on all 4 starts so far, over trips ranging from 10.5f to 12f. He made his handicap debut last week over 12f here off 49, and he showed a fair turn of foot before fading badly in the last couple of furlongs. He was slowly away too, so it was probably a better run than the distance beaten suggests.
He looks sure to be suited by dropping back in trip, and he gets to race over a mile for the first time tomorrow. The tongue tie and blinkers are retained and he has been handed a lovely draw in stall 3. Smith has an excellent strike rate at Dundalk, sending out 11 winners and 6 placed horses from 48 runners. Consider can be backed at odds of 20/1, and with the drop in trip to suit, and a good draw, he has to be worth an each way investment at those odds.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: 6.30 DUNDALK: CONSIDER E/W 20/1